The University of Louisville basketball team continues to flirt with the top 25 standings, according to recent Associated Press polls. In one week, out the next. Same with the Colorado Buffaloes, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Southern California Trojans, and, of course, the Duke Blue Devils.
Breathing down their necks are the Drake Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, Boise State Broncos, Xavier Musketeers, Belmont Bruins, Michigan State Spartans, Winthrop Eagles, Toledo Rockets, Utah State Aggies and the Purdue Boilermakers.
The focus here, however, is the Louisville Cardinals, who were leapfrogged by Florida State after handing the Cardinals a 78-65 defeat on their own home court. The game was never that close, the Seminoles leading by more than 20 points at one interval.
The ACC is a competitive conference, and even with a 10-4 overall record and 5-3 in the conference, the Cardinals are in fifth place. Their other losses coming to the Wisconsin Badgers, unranked Miami Hurricanes, and the Clemson Tigers.
However, the Cardinals have beaten Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke. Up next are Georgia Tech and Syracuse. No sure wins in the immediate future, no matter the venue. Georgia Tech is next on the schedule. The make or break game could be the upcoming game at Syracuse on Wednesday, Feb. 3.
At last glance, Syracuse ranked No. 19 on the Basketball Power Index with a BPI of 11.1 (off = 6.2, def =4.8) Louisville was No. 51 on the BPI, with a total rating of 8.0 (off = 5.1, def = 3.1). This game should have an opening betting line of around 5 points in favor of Syracuse. Speaking of favorites, If you are into the occasional wager you can amount to profits using this bet calculator for any given game. It’s always a good idea to check before any bet.
That said, because the Cardinals are ranked and Syracuse is not (at the moment), I doubt The Orange will get that much love on the betting lines. We’ll probably see the line come out anywhere from a pick ’em to Syracuse -2.5.
Syracuse is averaging almost 80 points per game, which is good enough to boast the No. 49 offense in the NCAA. This is a bit deceptive, though, as they are only shooting 45.23 percent from the field and just 32.02 percent from beyond the arc. The Orange also have not been stellar from the line, shooting foul shots at just under 80% (79.03). Defensively, ‘Cuse has been great at limiting opposing team’s three-point scoring. They hold the No. 21 three-point defense at 28.42 percent allowed and also the No. 32 ranked field goal percentage allowed at just 39.39. However, they allow 69.31 points per game, which is back at No. 156.
On the flip side, Louisville currently puts up 70.6 points per game, winning by an average scoring margin of 5.2 points per affair. Defensively, the Cardinals allow just 65.5 points per game, which is 69th best in college basketball. Louisville hasn’t been great at stopping perimeter shooting, at 40.77 percent allowed (78th), but that isn’t much of an issue in this matchup because honestly, Syracuse is garbage behind the Tre line.
This is one of those games that could go either way up in New York. If the Orange were playing on the road, I would heavily favor Louisville. But since the Cardinals have to fly north, this one is likely to come down to free throws in the finals moments of play. I would love to see Louisville listed as dogs of 5 points or more. If they are +4.5 or more, I’ll be all over the Louisville Cardinals to get the backdoor cover.
My early pick is to lean on the Cardinals as dogs of more than four points. If the line is less than that, one might want to look towards what the total holds.